Recently, the news reported on a death from a measles outbreak in Texas. Measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases will likely become increasingly more important in the near future. Unfortunately, as is often the case in medicine, it’s very difficult for you, the non-expert, to interpret the information you receive. Nowadays misinformation is curated. It is specifically selected, organized, and presented to deceive. In fact, as you will see, even truthful information can be used for deception. As a result, even the intelligent are prone to manipulation.
By reviewing just one of the strategies of measles vaccine opponents, I will demonstrate just how difficult it is to recognize curated misinformation.
To try convince you that the measles vaccine is unnecessary and ineffective they use the graph below (found on many of their websites). It plots the mortality of measles over time, with an arrow pointing at 1963, the year the vaccine was introduced.
It clearly show that from 1900 to 1950 measles mortality was already declining, long before the vaccine. This should lead you to the logical conclusion that measles was improving on its own and the vaccine was ineffective and unnecessary.
However, even though all the data in this graph are factually true, the conclusion is incorrect. Can you figure out why? Before you scroll down, try take a guess. Think about other kinds of statistics that could help you.
The answer: You were shown a graph of MORTALITY, the number of deaths from measles. What’s missing is INCIDENCE, the number of cases of measles. When measles cases are plotted over time, as in the graph below, it paints a completely different picture.
As you can see, incidence dramatically plummets immdeiately after the introduction of the vaccine. What was hundreds of thousands of cases per year dropped to just hundreds. Measles did NOT go away on its own, and the vaccine WAS very effective.
Which begs the question: why was mortality declining prior to the vaccine? This was simply due to the advancements in supportive care of the very ill. In fact, all disease mortality has improved since the year 1900. We went from treating the very ill with bloodletting and mercury to treating them with supplemental oxygen, IV fluids to hydrate, feeding tubes for nutritional support, and antibiotics for secondary pneumonias.
Pointing out declining mortality is pointing out the obvious. It's a red-herring, and it's curated misinformation at its best. Much like the misdirection of a magician, your attention was drawn from INCIDENCE, where vaccine benefits are obvious, to MORTALITY, where they are obscured. Only experts know to ask for both.
Measles is a highly preventable disease. Even with current medical technology its mortality rate is unacceptable and ranges from 1 in 1000 to 3 in a 1000, not to mention the many long-term complications in those who survive, including brain damage and immune suppression. Without vaccination we would rapidly go back to our pre-vaccine baseline of 500,000 cases annually, 100,000 hospitalizations, and 500 to 1500 deaths, escalating measles to one of the top 10 leading causes of death in children.
The key message here is to exercise caution. The misinformation you encounter is more than just factually incorrect; it is specially curated to mislead. Paradoxically, the more intelligent and self-assured you are in conducting "your own research", the easier you are to deceive. Therefore, it is crucial for you to seek out reliable sources. Ones that are free from conflicts of interest and political motives.
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